Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Is Trial and Error the Reason for PPM Feydhoo to Lose Local Council Election?



In a resounding political victory, the MDP candidate emerged triumphant in the Addu City Council Feydhoo Seat, defeating the PPM in all three local council elections held so far.

The membership proportion between MDP and PPM in Feydhoo was believed to be 55:45, and the final score of the September 2014 election perfectly matched this ratio. Similarly, the January 2014 election showed a 49:42 split between MDP and PPM, with two additional candidates in the running. When converted to percentages, both elections displayed a similar 53:47 ratio. Notably, the gap between PPM and MDP rose from 6% to 10%, a significant increase while PPM was in power, which should raise concerns for the party.

The figures clearly indicate that MDP garnered more support than PPM in both local council elections of 2014. MDP's confident activists believed they could easily overcome PPM without resorting to harsh campaigns, and to some extent, PPM's efforts to persuade MDP voters were successful, attracting several youngsters to their cause.

Crucially, MDP utilized their long-held data and statistics effectively in each election, following the guidance and expertise they acquired from the UK's Conservative Party. In contrast, PPM's lack of proper data management and reliance on past reflections in their campaigns proved to be a significant disadvantage. The absence of PPM patch leaders in the front-line campaign further weakened their position.

The MDP campaign focused on targeted voter outreach backed by accurate data and statistics, persuading a considerable number of voters within their party. Conversely, PPM struggled to target their own voters effectively and relied heavily on influencing MDP voters. While PPM made efforts through rare campaign events and social media, both parties failed to present clear messages to voters, outlining their plans to benefit the city.

The credibility of the MDP candidate was high among elders and middle-aged people, owing to his background as a former footballer and respected teacher and Headmaster at Feydhoo School. On the other hand, the young PPM candidate enjoyed popularity among the youth.

Family affiliations played a crucial role in the election, with the MDP candidate garnering substantial support from two influential families, while the PPM candidate hailed from a historically significant family with deep-rooted connections.

Notably, there was a faction of voters with radical beliefs or progressive ideas, and this group contributed to a strong anti-PPM sentiment, particularly against the female candidate, which might have had an impact on the results.

MP Ibrahim Didi's relentless efforts on behalf of the PPM candidate significantly influenced the election, narrowing the gap between the two parties. PPM's willingness to support their candidate was at its highest since 2013, with strong backing from the party's leadership and other influential figures.

In retrospect, a more structured and strategic approach, employing accurate data and statistics to target voters from both parties, could have potentially led to a very different, if not surprising, outcome in the election.

As stated in the 'Political Campaign Manual' by the National Democratic Institute, data is a crucial component of any political campaign. The MDP, despite several recent significant elections, treated each election as unique and effectively utilized their well-preserved data, benefiting from guidance and expertise acquired from the UK's Conservative Party.

In contrast, PPM Feydhoo lacked proper data management, and their campaigns relied on past experiences. The PPM candidate chose to campaign in her own style, without heavy reliance on others. The deliberate disengagement of PPM patch leaders in the forefront of the campaign could have been a notable setback for the party.

Ronald A. Faucheux, in his book 'Winning Elections: Political Campaign Management, Strategy, and Tactics,' highlights the essential questions to win an election, such as the number of registered voters, expected voter turnout, the count of pledged voters, the targeted voter demographics, and the strategies to persuade them, along with effective implementation plans.